Assessment of River Floodplains in Sinop Province under Climate Change Scenarios: The Case of Merkez, Gerze and Dikmen Districts

Abstract

A fluvial flood is an event where a river overflows its banks, inundating surrounding areas. Fluvial floods occur as a result of excessive rainfall. The development of settlements along riverbeds leads to loss of life and property, submerging agricultural lands, and causing infrastructure damage. To protect against floods, it is crucial to understand the characteristics of people and property that may be exposed to flooding and to determine their vulnerability. This study identifies potential flood spread areas in the densely populated and tourism-prone districts of Sinop province, specifically in the Merkez and Gerze districts, and the Dikmen district, which experienced a flood in 2013, as a result of climate change. The FastFlood software, capable of two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, was used to determine flood spread. The impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts has been determined within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, based on recurrence intervals of 5, 10, 25, and 50 years, and flood spread areas and flood level heights for 2030, 2050, and 2080 have been determined. According to the results of the study, it is predicted that increased flood flows in densely populated areas may pose risks to people and property. It is believed that the developed flood spread model can be used by local governments in decision-making support mechanisms and can play an effective role in disaster management.