Drought Analysis and Performance Evaluation in Niğde Province Using Different Drought Indices

Abstract

In this study, drought conditions in Niğde province were analyzed using different drought indices, and their regional performances were comparatively evaluated. Long-term meteorological data for the period 1960–2021 were used. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and UNEP Aridity Index were applied.SPI and RDI were evaluated at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales to determine temporal variability, while the UNEP Aridity Index was calculated based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). PET values were estimated using the Hargreaves method via the Drinc software.The results indicate that arid and semi-arid conditions dominate in Niğde province. While short-term fluctuations are evident, long-term analyses reveal a more pronounced drought tendency. In particular, the 9- and 12-month results highlight a persistent drought risk. The UNEP Aridity Index findings support these results.The consistency among the indices enhances the reliability of the analysis and confirms that Niğde is a drought-sensitive region. These findings provide important implications for sustainable water resource management.